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A comparison of alternative rental forecasting models: empirical tests on the London office market 

Authors: Simon Stevenson a; Oliver McGarth b
Affiliations:   a Centre for Real Estate Research, Department of Banking & Finance, Graduate School of Business, University College Dublin, Carysfort Avenue, Blackrock, Dublin, Ireland.
b Trinty Real Estate, Duke Street, Dublin 2.
DOI: 10.1080/0959991032000162338
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year
Published in: journal Journal of Property Research, Volume 20, Issue 3 September 2003 , pages 235 - 260
Number of References: 25
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

The study examines four alternative rental forecasting models in the context of the London office market. The forecasting ability of an ARIMA model, a Bayesian Vector Autoregression approach, an OLS based single equation model and a simultaneous equation model are compared and contrasted. The models are estimated using the CB Hillier Parker London Office index over the period 1977- 1996, with out-of-sample testing undertaken on the following three years of data. Diagnostic testing is also conducted on the alternative models. The findings reveal that the Bayesian VAR model produces the best forecasts, while the ARIMA model fails to pick up on the large uptake in rental values during the testing period.
Keywords: Rental Forecasting; Vector Autoregression; Arima Modelling; London Office Market
view references (25) : view citations
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