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Time to wealth goals in capital accumulation 

Authors: Leonard C. Maclean a;  William T. Ziemba bc; Yuming Li d
Affiliations:   a School of Business Administration, Dalhousie University, hali, NS, Canada B3H 1Z5
b Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z2
c Department of Finance, Sloan School of Management, 50 Memorial Drive E52-410, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142-1347, USA
d School of Business, California State University, Fullerton, CA 92834, USA
DOI: 10.1080/14697680500149552
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 5, Issue 4 August 2005 , pages 343 - 355
Number of References: 44
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

This paper considers the problem of investment of capital in risky assets in a dynamic capital market in continuous time. The model controls risk, and in particular the risk associated with errors in the estimation of asset returns. The framework for investment risk is a geometric Brownian motion model for asset prices, with random rates of return. The information filtration process and the capital allocation decisions are considered separately. The filtration is based on a Bayesian model for asset prices, and an (empirical) Bayes estimator for current price dynamics is developed from the price history. Given the conditional price dynamics, investors allocate wealth to achieve their financial goals efficiently over time. The price updating and wealth reallocations occur when control limits on the wealth process are attained. A Bayesian fractional Kelly strategy is optimal at each rebalancing, assuming that the risky assets are jointly lognormal distributed. The strategy minimizes the expected time to the upper wealth limit while maintaining a high probability of reaching that goal before falling to a lower wealth limit. The fractional Kelly strategy is a blend of the log-optimal portfolio and cash and is equivalently represented by a negative power utility function, under the multivariate lognormal distribution assumption. By rebalancing when control limits are reached, the wealth goals approach provides greater control over downside risk and upside growth. The wealth goals approach with random rebalancing times is compared to the expected utility approach with fixed rebalancing times in an asset allocation problem involving stocks, bonds, and cash.
Keywords: Capital accumulation; Wealth goals; Investment of capital
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