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Moderate alcohol use and reduced mortality risk: Systematic error in prospective studies 

Authors: Kaye Middleton Fillmore a;  William C. Kerr b;  Tim Stockwell c;  Tanya Chikritzhs d; Alan Bostrom e
Affiliations:   a Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94148-0612
b Alcohol Research Group, Berkeley, California 94709-2130
c Centre for Addictions Research of British Columbia, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
d National Drug Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth WA 6845, Australia
e Department of Epidemology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA
DOI: 10.1080/16066350500497983
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Addiction Research & Theory, Volume 14, Issue 2 April 2006 , pages 101 - 132
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

The majority of prospective studies on alcohol use and mortality risk indicates that abstainers are at increased risk of mortality from both all causes and coronary heart disease (CHD). This meta-analysis of 54 published studies tested the extent to which a systematic misclassification error was committed by including as 'abstainers' many people who had reduced or stopped drinking, a phenomenon associated with ageing and ill health. The studies judged to be error free found no significant all-cause or cardiac protection, suggesting that the cardiac protection afforded by alcohol may have been over-estimated. Estimates of mortality from heavier drinking may also be higher than previously estimated.
Keywords: Coronary heart disease mortality; meta-analysis; prospective studies; systematic error; cardiac protection
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