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Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation and Model Comparison 

Authors: Jun Yu a; Renate Meyer b
Affiliations:   a School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University, Singapore
b Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
DOI: 10.1080/07474930600713465
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Econometric Reviews, Volume 25, Issue 2 & 3 September 2006 , pages 361 - 384
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

In this paper we show that fully likelihood-based estimation and comparison of multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models can be easily performed via a freely available Bayesian software called WinBUGS. Moreover, we introduce to the literature several new specifications that are natural extensions to certain existing models, one of which allows for time-varying correlation coefficients. Ideas are illustrated by fitting, to a bivariate time series data of weekly exchange rates, nine multivariate SV models, including the specifications with Granger causality in volatility, time-varying correlations, heavy-tailed error distributions, additive factor structure, and multiplicative factor structure. Empirical results suggest that the best specifications are those that allow for time-varying correlation coefficients.
Keywords: DIC; Factors; Granger causality in volatility; Heavy-tailed distributions; MCMC; Multivariate stochastic volatility; Time-varying correlations
JEL Classification: C11; C15; C30; G12
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