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Variance (Non) Causality in Multivariate GARCH 

Author: Massimiliano Caporin a
Affiliation:   a Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche “Marco Fanno”, Universitagrave degli Studi di Padova, Padova, Italy
DOI: 10.1080/07474930600972178
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Econometric Reviews, Volume 26, Issue 1 January 2007 , pages 1 - 24
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

This paper extends the current literature on the variance-causality topic providing the coefficient restrictions ensuring variance noncausality within multivariate GARCH models with in-mean effects. Furthermore, this paper presents a new multivariate model, the exponential causality GARCH. By the introduction of a multiplicative causality impact function, the variance causality effects becomes directly interpretable and can therefore be used to detect both the existence of causality and its direction; notably, the proposed model allows for increasing and decreasing variance effects. An empirical application evidences negative causality effects between returns and volume of an Italian stock market index future contract.
Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Variance causality; Volatility
JEL Classification: C22; C32; C51
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