A bayesian approach to dynamic tobit models
Author:
Steven X. Wei a
| Affiliation: | a Department of Finance, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong |
DOI:
10.1080/07474939908800353
Publication Frequency:
6 issues per year
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Abstract
This paper develops a posterior simulation method for a dynamic Tobit model. The major obstacle rooted in such a problem lies in high dimensional integrals, induced by dependence among censored observations, in the likelihood function. The primary contribution of this study is to develop a practical and efficient sampling scheme for the conditional posterior distributions of the censored (i.e., unobserved) data, so that the Gibbs sampler with the data augmentation algorithm is successfully applied. The substantial differences between this approach and some existing methods are highlighted. The proposed simulation method is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo study and applied to a regression model of Japanese exports of passenger cars to the U.S. subject to a non-tariff trade barrier.
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| Keywords: Bayesian inference; Dynamic Tobit model; The Gibbs sampler with the data augmentation; Monte Carlo simulation; truncated normal distribution |
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