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Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market 

Authors: Luc Bauwens a; Michel Lubrano b
Affiliations:   a CORE and Department of Economics, Universiteacute catholique de Louvain,
b GREQAM and CNRS, Marseille, France
DOI: 10.1080/07474930701220634
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Econometric Reviews, Volume 26, Issue 2 - 4 March 2007 , pages 469 - 486
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002).
Keywords: Bayesian inference; Credit rationing; Data augmentation; Disequilibrium model; Latent variables; Poland
JEL Classification: C11; C32; C34; E51
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