Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market
Authors:
Luc Bauwens a;
Michel Lubrano b
| Affiliations: | a CORE and Department of Economics, Universit catholique de Louvain, |
| b GREQAM and CNRS, Marseille, France |
DOI:
10.1080/07474930701220634
Publication Frequency:
6 issues per year
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Abstract
We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002).
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| Keywords: Bayesian inference; Credit rationing; Data augmentation; Disequilibrium model; Latent variables; Poland |
| JEL Classification: C11; C32; C34; E51 |
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