Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference
Authors:
Clifford R. Mynatt a;
Michael E. Doherty a;
Ryan D. Tweney a
| Affiliation: | a Psychology Department, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, Ohio, U.S.A. |
DOI:
10.1080/00335557743000053
Publication Frequency:
12 issues per year
Published in:
The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology,
Volume
29,
Issue
1
February
1977
, pages 85
- 95
Subject:
Cognitive Psychology;
Formats available:
PDF
(English)
Also incorporating: The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology Section A
Also incorporating: The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology Section B
View Article:
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Abstract
Numerous authors (e.g., Popper, 1959) argue that scientists should try to falsify rather than confirm theories. However, recent empirical work (Wason and Johnson-Laird, 1972) suggests the existence of a confirmation bias, at least on abstract problems. Using a more realistic, computer controlled environment modeled after a real research setting, subjects in this study first formulated hypotheses about the laws governing events occurring in the environment. They then chose between pairs of environments in which they could: (I) make observations which would probably confirm these hypotheses, or (2) test alternative hypotheses. Strong evidence for a confirmation bias involving failure to choose environments allowing tests of alternative hypotheses was found. However, when subjects did obtain explicit falsifying information, they used this information to reject incorrect hypotheses.
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