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Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference 

Authors: Clifford R. Mynatt a;  Michael E. Doherty a; Ryan D. Tweney a
Affiliation:   a Psychology Department, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, Ohio, U.S.A.
DOI: 10.1080/00335557743000053
Publication Frequency: 12 issues per year
Published in: journal The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, Volume 29, Issue 1 February 1977 , pages 85 - 95
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

Numerous authors (e.g., Popper, 1959) argue that scientists should try to falsify rather than confirm theories. However, recent empirical work (Wason and Johnson-Laird, 1972) suggests the existence of a confirmation bias, at least on abstract problems. Using a more realistic, computer controlled environment modeled after a real research setting, subjects in this study first formulated hypotheses about the laws governing events occurring in the environment. They then chose between pairs of environments in which they could: (I) make observations which would probably confirm these hypotheses, or (2) test alternative hypotheses. Strong evidence for a confirmation bias involving failure to choose environments allowing tests of alternative hypotheses was found. However, when subjects did obtain explicit falsifying information, they used this information to reject incorrect hypotheses.
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