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Hedging against the cruise-missile threat 

Author: D. Gormley a
Affiliation:   a D. Gormley Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation, Arlington, VA, USA .
DOI: 10.1093/survival/40.1.92
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Survival, Volume 40, Issue 1 January 1998 , pages 92 - 111
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

Diverse sources of cruise-missile proliferation already exist. And, unlike the incremental way in which the ballistic-missile threat has unfolded, land-attack cruise missiles with stealth capabilities could emerge rapidly and at the same time as cruder, first-generation cruise missiles. Indeed, compared with the predictable features of planning against the Cold War's monolithic adversary, the emerging cruise-missile threat may well represent the prototype of twenty-first-century defence-planning challenges - multiple acquisition paths, uncertain development cycles and opaque monitoring environments. To avoid being caught unprepared for a future regional contingency, defence planners need to develop far better hedging strategies against this threat than they did against that of ballistic missiles in the 1980s. A critical near-term challenge is deciding upon an appropriate mix of defence investments and improved arms-control policies.
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