Sensitivity analysis of spatial models
Authors:
Linda Lilburne a;
Stefano Tarantola b
| Affiliations: | a Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand |
| b Econometrics and Applied Statistics Unit, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, 21020 Ispra, Italy |
DOI:
10.1080/13658810802094995
Publication Frequency:
12 issues per year
Published in:
International Journal of Geographical Information Science,
Volume
23,
Issue
2
February
2009
, pages 151
- 168
First Published:
February
2009
Subjects:
Cartography;
Computer Science (General);
Earth Sciences;
Geographic Information Systems;
Location Based Services;
Navigation;
Systems & Computer Architecture of Databases;
Topography;
Transport Geography;
Formats available:
HTML
(English)
:
PDF
(English)
Previously published as:
International journal of geographical information systems
(0269-3798,
1362-3087)
until 1996
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Abstract
Sensitivity analysis is the study of how uncertainty in model predictions is determined by uncertainty in model inputs. A global sensitivity analysis considers the potential effects from the simultaneous variation of model inputs over their finite range of uncertainty. A number of techniques are available to carry out global sensitivity analysis from a set of Monte Carlo simulations; some techniques are more efficient than others, depending on the strategy used to sample the uncertainty of model inputs and on the formulae employed for estimating sensitivity measures. The most common approaches are summarised in this paper by focusing on the limitations of each in the context of a sensitivity analysis of a spatial model. A novel approach for undertaking a spatial sensitivity analysis (based on the method of Sobol' and its related improvements) is proposed and tested. This method makes no assumptions about the model and enables the analysis of spatially distributed, uncertain inputs. The proposed approach is illustrated with a simple test model and a groundwater contaminant model.
|
| Keywords: Uncertainty analysis; Sensitivity analysis; Spatial models, Nitrate transport |
| view references (42) : view citations |

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