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The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms 

Authors: Joumlrg Doumlpke a; Sebastian Weber b
Affiliations:   a Economics Department, University of Applied Sciences Merseburg, Merseburg, D-06217, Germany
b DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin, Germany
DOI: 10.1080/00036840802360120
Publication Frequency: 24 issues per year
Published in: journal Applied Economics
First Published on: 14 January 2009
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

In this article, we analyse stylized facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55 000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has witnessed a high growth rate is likely to stay in a regime of high growth or is bound to switch to a regime of low growth in the subsequent period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position.
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